Positives: In terms of guys you can acquire 2 days before the season starts & for relatively free money? I'll take it. He's got a rested arm - since 2017 he's topped out at 147ip. He barely threw in 2018, 2019, 2020 before pitching 22 games last year. If you want to be positive you're getting a former Ace/All-Star who, if healthy, can probably give you $7-10mm production as a #5. In a perfect world he's worth every cent of the deal. He's not a guy who walks people. Stays out of trouble in that sense. no free passes. should be a guy who can slot right in and fit in with this team and bring experience. His fastball and changeup are still relatively strong, particularly his fastball.
Negatives: He's not the guy he used to be. His FIP has been over 4-5 since 2018. He hasn't been healthy in half a decade. He ranks near the bottom quadrant in CSW, xwOBA, etc. His slider is absolute trash. He threw it 22% of the time in 2021. His CSW on slider was almost dead last out of all pitchers ... like ... it's TRASH. hang a slider on the southside during the summer and the people in LF bleachers will be shagging opposing homers all day. The chances of him lasting more than 100ip are minimal. At least with Keuchel we know we can get 160ip of this type of ball. He absolutely does not fill the absolutely pressing need of a TOR type of arm for playoffs.
Overall: Based on timing + sudden need after Lynn? B-. Based on the whole off-season? D-. I'd say maybe Katz can fix that slider or sees something ... but like ... he was cueto's pitching coach in SF already in 2020 and that was among Cueto's worst year ever. He shouldn't be throwing that slider, but unfortunately then what does he throw? The Sox don't have the farm system to compete on top arms that are needed. aka, playoff impact arms. I don't care how you look at Kimbrel, but he had the pedigree to be an imposing playoff arm (i mean, the dodgers, the best team in baseball said why not? and slotted him right in as closer). You also lost Crochet. You lost Rodon. So far we've replaced with Vince + Cueto + Graveman + Kelly. Doesn't add up. Off-season is when you could address the need via the pocketbook. Now you're going to be forced to overpay in season for guys like Castillo bidding against other teams with your already thin farm system. Absolute disaster. There's no chance Cueto is an impact arm to where he makes a playoff roster. The sox had the perfect setup with cheaper contracts during Covid/their open window to sign impactful guys and didn't do it. They had the opportunity this offseason with more clarity on season tickets, covid clarity, etc. and still didn't spend. It will ultimately come back to haunt them when in game 3 or 4 of an ALDS or ALCS you have a tired Kopech going and questionable arms coming in after to replace him.
Welcome to the SS Johnny. Be better than Ervin Santana and Mat Latos please.