Otto Notes:
Features sinker 26% of the time, Slider 24, Fastball 23%, Curveball 14%, and Changeup 13%. By far and away his sinker is his best pitch with xBA of .199. Outside of that? his curve and slider can work from time to time, but not nearly as scary. He likes to work the sinker in on righties, usually up and in. His fastball is wild, but leaves a good amount center. We need to sit on a fastball and be patient. Not that this Sox team knows how to do that. Overall righties have a .315BA this year and a 1.8 WHIP. Patience is a virtue today. The type of game Moncada, Yaz, Abreu, Vaughn should excel in. Anderson, Robert, Eloy need to relax today. Otto will walk guys. He's alked 38 in 72ip. The thing Otto does surprisingly well is control his pitches MUCH better with guys on. Seems to go shift to putting the ball over the plate more. With runners on base he has 30k's against 7bb for a 1.237 whip. With bases empty he seems to nibble a bunch more a 1.73whip. Much like many pitchers his ERA in the first go-round is much lower. 3.70ERA, second go-round its 5.96, and although he hasn't got late in the games very often he's gets knocked around after. Generally normal there. Home splits are 7.50ERA v. 4.00era on the road ... a bit surprising. Final tidbits, xERA is 5.63, pretty awful.
Game plan should be to sit fastball, be patient on that sinker inside. If he can't locate that, then we should be in a good position to take his other offerings
Cease? We know the story. He's good.
Lineup: In no god damn way should Sheets sniff this lineup as a lefty. We have a ton of righties and that's a good thing in this matchup. Sheets can come in for a pinch hit later, but in no way do i want to see his face. Take the defense in Engel in RF. I'm looking for Anderson, Moncada, Eloy, Abreu, Robert, Vaughn, Yaz, Engel, Harrison;
I like moving Moncada up for a guy with control issues as long as Yoan knows the game plan is to be patient. Otherwise stick him near the bottom. Although I like Seby, I also think you have to go with Yaz for same reasons as Moncada. I like getting Engel a game here with Cease on the mound and to give him an OF that can field.
All goes well and this should be a 6-2 type final hopefully.
Go go sox.